1. USGS Smelter Capacity 2 of 4 Active
Mt. Holly Smelter (SC)
Century Aluminum • 229k t/yr
Sebree Smelter (KY)
Century Aluminum • 218k t/yr
Warrick Operations (IN)
Alcoa • 161k t/yr (Idled potlines)
Massena Smelter (NY)
Alcoa • 130k t/yr (High power cost)
Import Tariff on Canadian Metal
50%
0% (Free Trade)
50% (Current Shock)
100%
US Industrial Power Cost
7.2 ¢/kWh
vs. Quebec Hydro-Powered Smelters @ 3.8 ¢/kWh
Hall-Héroult Electrolysis Physics:
Smelting 1 tonne of aluminum requires 14.5–15.0 MWh of DC electricity. Electricity constitutes ~40% of production cost. Closing a 4.1M tonne gap domestically would require ~60 TWh/yr—exceeding the electricity demand of 8 hyperscale AI data center clusters.
2. North American Aluminum Supply Flow & Tariff Divergence
US Deficit: 4,125k t
Left: Primary Smelting Sources (Canada Hydro + US Potlines)
Center: US Customs & Market Distribution
Right: Downstream End-Use Sectors
3. Material Substitution Sandbox Active Trigger
US Price Premium Over EU
>$1,500/t Threshold Reached
Automotive Body Stamping
Ram 1500 Hood: Switched from Aluminum to Steel
Stamping plants facing >$1,500/t raw coil premiums switch non-structural exterior skins back to deep-draw cold-rolled steel (+18 lbs vehicle mass penalty).
Automotive Sheet Stamping
+28.4%
Beverage Packaging (Cans)
+19.5% ($0.08/can)
Aerospace 7000/2000 Alloys
+34.0%
Extrusion & Construction
+22.1%
Scrap & Secondary Recycling: US scrap covers ~35% of casting, but high-purity sheet (auto hoods & aerospace) strictly requires virgin primary P1020 ingot.