Negotiation Levers
SCENARIO PRESETS
25%
85%
0%
"Our free trade agreement with Canada will create jobs and foster mutual growth for generations to come." — Ronald Reagan, 1987
Annual Trade Friction
$18.4B
Baseline: $195B
Border Security Rating
88/100
Joint Enforcement Target
Canada GDP Drag
-0.95%
Export Exposure
US GDP Drag
-0.18%
Consumer & Supply Shock
Windsor-Detroit Automotive Crossings (7-Cycle Lifecycle)
Cumulative Added Cost: $840 / vehicle
Automotive parts cross the Ambassador Bridge and Detroit-Windsor Tunnel up to 7 times before final assembly. Without USMCA carveouts, multi-stage tariffs compound rapidly.
Pass 1: Raw Steel
Hamilton, ON ➔ Cleveland, OH
Tariff: $0 (Exempt)
Pass 2: Engine Block
Cleveland, OH ➔ Windsor, ON
Tariff: $0 (Exempt)
Pass 3: Transmission
Windsor, ON ➔ Detroit, MI
Tariff: $0 (Exempt)
Pass 4: Wire Harness
Detroit, MI ➔ Brampton, ON
Tariff: $0 (Exempt)
Pass 5: Electronics
Brampton, ON ➔ Flint, MI
Tariff: $0 (Exempt)
Pass 6: Final Body
Flint, MI ➔ Oshawa, ON
Tariff: $0 (Exempt)
Pass 7: Dealer Export
Oshawa, ON ➔ US Dealerships
Tariff: $0 (Exempt)
Bilateral Sector Exposure Index
Crude & Refined Energy ($120B/yr)
Carveout Active: 0% Tariff applied
Integrated Automotive ($110B/yr)
USMCA Compliant Carveout: 0% Tariff applied
Critical Minerals & Metals ($45B/yr)
Partial Tariff Impact: $4.5B exposed
Agriculture & Timber ($38B/yr)
Targeted duties: $3.8B exposed