Bloomberg Terminal Wire Alert
US Mortgage Rate & Application Shock Simulator
Source:
@DeItaone
| Conforming 6.97% / Jumbo 7.03%
System Status:
Severe Contraction
Simulated Apps Drop:
-4.1%
•
Refinancing Plunge:
-8.8%
Rate Shock Controls
30-Year Fixed
30Y Conforming Rate
6.97
%
Baseline alert rate: 6.97%
30Y Jumbo Rate
7.03
%
Baseline alert rate: 7.03%
Conforming Loan Base
$
400,000
Macro Scenarios:
Alert (6.97%)
7.25% Shock
6.25% Relief
Conforming rates at 6.97% trigger severe application pullback (-4.1%) with refinancing demand plummeting -8.8% as homeowner locked-in rates average 3.9%.
Application Demand vs Rate Elasticity Curve
INDEX = 100
Loan Bracket Stress Test (Monthly P&I)
Tier
Loan Principal
Monthly (P&I)
Min Qual. Income
Conforming Starter
$400,000
$2,653
$113,714
Conforming Median
$750,000
$4,975
$213,214
Jumbo Tier
$850,000
$5,673
$243,129
High-Balance Jumbo
$1,200,000
$8,009
$343,241
Household Affordability Strain
Front-End 28%
Conforming Monthly Payment ($400k)
$
2668
Baseline: $2,668/mo
Jumbo Monthly Payment ($850k)
$
5664
Baseline: $5,664/mo
Required Household Income (28% DTI)
$
114343
Annual gross required for $400k loan
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