Venezuela Transition Matrix
Institutional political economy simulator & transition pathway analysis
Negotiated Constitutional Pact
Analytical Presets
Baseline 2026
Negotiated Pact
Electoral Contestation
Stalled Stalemate
Regime Cohesion Pillars
Military High Command Loyalty
0.82
Oil Patronage Liquidity
0.45
Electoral Council Control (CNE)
0.88
Internal Security Enforcement
0.78
Democratic Leverage Levers
Civic Mobilization
0.65
Electoral Tally Transparency (Actas)
0.80
Sanctions Relief Bargaining
0.70
Regional/Intl Mediation Depth
0.55
Institutional Power Balance & Cohesion Radar
Interactive Vector Chart
0.64
Transition Feasibility Index
0.73
Regime Cohesion Score
0.68
Opposition Leverage Index
0.31
Military Defection Probability
Scenario Diagnosis
Dominant Pathway:
Negotiated Constitutional Pact with Guarantee Architecture
Primary Bottleneck:
Military command immunity and institutional off-ramps
Spolier Risk:
Parallel intelligence networks & illicit resource rents
Recommended Sequencing
Establish bilateral verified guarantees and transitional amnesty frameworks
Structure staged oil license relief tied to verified electoral council auditing
Institute joint civilian-military security council to prevent institutional rupture
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