Voter Climate Policy Mandate & Economic Sentiment Simulator

Scenarios:

Context: "Voters feel that the climate push is over the top." — Grounding sentiment on policy friction, energy bill shock, and climate mandate backlash.

Overall Voter Approval 54.0%

Backlash Risk Level Moderate

Avg Utility Bill Shift +8.4%

Policy Tipping Horizon 2029

Policy Levers

Carbon Fee ($/ton) $45

Clean Energy Mandate Speed 8%/yr

Low-Income Dividend Target 75%

Bill Cap Subsidy Level 20%

Simulation Diagnostic Proof:

Overall Approval: 54.0% | Backlash Risk: Moderate

Support (>55%)

Neutral (45-55%)

Economic Stress (35-45%)

Political Backlash (<35%)

Voter Cohort	Population Share	Net Monthly Impact	Final Approval	Primary Driver

Current Run Outcome: Moderate backlash risk with 2029 policy longevity boundary.

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