VP Presidential Succession & Endorsement Dynamics Model

VP Successor Delegate Lock Rate 68.4% Projected 1st-ballot capture

Donor Retention Efficiency 74.2% Incumbent donor network retention

Primary Fragmentation Index 0.32 Herfindahl score (0 = Unified, 1 = Fractured)

Coalition Viability Probability 78.5% Likelihood of winning nomination

Dynamic Coalition & Delegate Transition Network

Successor VP

Incumbent Core

Donor Blocs

Challengers

Scenario Parameters

Endorsement Timing 14 Mos Before Primary

"Too Early" (1-6m) vs Active Mobilization (18-24m)

Presidential Approval Baseline 52% Approval

Donor Pledge Alignment % 75% Aligned

Public Endorsement Signal Strength High (Directive)

Primary Field Crowding 3 Challengers

Delegate Trajectory Capture Curve

Historical Executive Language Context

Year	Incumbent / VP	Executive Statement / Stance	Outcome
2028	Trump / Vance	"Way too early to think about 2028" vs Private Donor Directives	Simulating...
2000	Clinton / Gore	Early robust endorsement & full campaign integration	Nominated (Won 1st ballot)
1988	Reagan / Bush	Implicit early blessing, explicit endorsement post-Super Tuesday	Nominated & Won Election
1968	LBJ / Humphrey	Late withdrawal endorsement, chaotic open primary field	Nominated (Lost Election)
1960	Eisenhower / Nixon	Public hesitation ("Give me a week"), private structural backing	Nominated (Lost Election)