North Korea Nuclear Stockpile Comparator Intelligence Audit

Calibrating South Korea MoD (120 warhead ceiling) against technical fissile capacity models

Production Inputs 5MWe Active
Reactor Power (5MWe Yongbyon) 5 MWth
Reactor Operating Days / Year 280 days
Centrifuge SWU (Yongbyon+Kangson) 8,000 SWU
Enrichment Operations Timeline 18 yrs
Plutonium / Core (Avg) 4.0 kg
HEU / Warhead (Avg) 20.0 kg
Composite / Boosted Ratio 60%
Stockpile Estimate Divergence D3 Engine
Simulated Warhead Capacity Ceiling
115
Estimated range: 90 to 125 warheads
Annual Pu Generation
5.6 kg/yr
Total Pu: ~55 kg
Annual HEU Output
80.0 kg/yr
Total HEU: ~1,440 kg
Assessment Summary: Consistent with South Korean Defense Ministry 120-ceiling assessment under dual Yongbyon/Kangson enrichment.
Agency Discrepancy Matrix 2026 Audit
South Korea MoD (2026)
Up to 120
+4.2% Delta
SIPRI Yearbook 2025/26
50 – 90 (Mid 70)
+43.8% Delta
Fed. American Scientists (FAS)
50 Assembled
-78.5% Delta
Trump Public Statement
~20 - 30 Claims
-283.3% Discrepancy
Sources: Reuters dispatch (Aug 2026), ROK Parliamentary Intelligence Committee briefing, SIPRI Armaments & Disarmament, FAS Nuclear Notebook.
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