Geopolitical Oil Supply Shock & Red-Line Risk Matrix
When deterministic geopolitical endpoints break down, pricing shifts to open-ended supply disruption elasticity, Hormuz transit degradation, and strategic reserve exhaustion velocity.
Scenarios:
Brent Peak Price
$118.40
+$43.40 vs baseline ($75.00)
Net Daily Deficit
-2.55 mb/d
Total global deficit post-buffers
Cumulative Inventory Draw
688.5 mb
~42% of combined IEA reserves
Endgame Breakdown Index
84 / 100
Unforecastable state probability
Forward Price Path & Inventory Depletion Fan (18 Months)
Simulated Brent Crude trajectories under base, stress, and severe tail-risk red-line escalation.
Projected Brent ($/bbl)
90% Tail Risk
Pre-Crisis Baseline
Geopolitical Disruption Matrix by Quarter
Quarterly supply balance & macro inflation impulse
| Period | Gross Shock | Offsets (OPEC+SPR) | Net Balance | Est. Brent Range | Global CPI Impulse | Risk State |
|---|
Desk Note: As red lines dissolve, traditional mean-reverting supply models fail. Disruption above 3.0 mb/d without rapid Saudi compensation accelerates sprint toward global stagflation boundaries.
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