Wisconsin Primary Coalition Analyzer

Candidate Levers

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Candidate A Platform Vector

Ideological Position Democratic Socialist (88)

Moderate Pragmatist (10) Mainstream Lib Dem Socialist (100)

Suburban Moderation Elasticity High Backlash (-28%)

Rigid Suburbs (0%) Moderate Severe Penalty (50%)

Regional Turnout Dynamics

Dane / Madison Turnout 142,000 (100%)

100k Base142k Norm220k Surge

Milwaukee Core Turnout 178,000 (100%)

120k Low178k Baseline240k Max

WOW Suburbs Turnout 95,000 (100%)

60k Low95k Baseline150k High

Fox Valley / Green Bay 84,000 (100%)

50k84k Baseline130k

Rural Western / Driftless 68,000 (100%)

40k68k Baseline110k

Projected Primary Outcome

Moderate Pragmatist +13.6% WIN

Total Modeled Electorate

567,000

50% Line

Prog Soc: 43.2% (244.9k)

Mod Prag: 56.8% (322.1k)

Dane Hegemony Share

WOW Suburbs Share

Tipping Point Region

Fox Valley Corridor

Regional Coalition Cartogram

5 Strategic Key Blocs

Net Vote Delta Waterfall (Cumulative Margin)

Dane Surplus vs Outstate Deficit

Coalition Strategic Brief

In this scenario, Candidate A (Democratic Socialist) secures an overwhelming 74.0% margin in Dane County (Madison), generating a massive +68.2k vote surplus. However, steep erosion across the suburban WOW counties (28.0% share) and the Fox Valley industrial corridor leaves a net statewide deficit of -77.2k votes.

Madison Isolation Trap: High Base, Outstate Deficit

Grounding: The Economist analysis on Francesca Hong and democratic moderates' electoral math across Wisconsin's geographic coalitions.

Regional Vote Matrix

Full Model Breakdown

Region	Total	Prog %	Mod %	Net Margin

General Election Viability

Suburban Swing Elasticity High Risk (-22.4k)

Working Class Fox Margin Lean Mod (+18.4k)

Madison Turnout Requirement to Win 221,400 (Surge Req: +56%)