Margin Probability Density Function
Candidate A Share Shift
+0.00%
Adjust statewide baseline candidate polling lead
Milwaukee Turnout
100%
Heavy turnout boosts Candidate A margin
Dane County Turnout
100%
Progressive stronghold high turnout boost
WOW Counties Swing
0.0%
Suburban swing shift against/for baseline
Late Unexpected Shift
0.00%
Simulate late election night reporting shock
Market Liquidity Depth
1.0x
Tighter liquidity widens bid-ask spreads
Simulation State Proof Summary
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Prediction Brackets & Order Depth
Order Book: 2.0% - 5.0% Bracket
Spread: 2.0¢
| Type | Price | Size | Depth |
|---|
Bracket Expected Payout & Risk Profile