Trade & Belief Parameters
Market Implied Win Odds
91.0%
Your Belief Win Odds
95.0%
Target Trade Size ($)
$100
Total Bankroll ($)
Max Slippage Tolerance
2.0%
Quantitative Execution & Strategy Proof
Kelly Bet Size
$444.44
44.4% of bankroll
Expected Value (EV)
+4.40%
+$4.40 / $100 trade
Execution Fill Price
91.85¢
0.85% slippage
Implied Leverage
1.10x
+$8.87 max win
Order Book Depth & Order Execution Impact
Bids (Amber) vs Asks (Green)
Kelly Criterion Capital Allocation Curve
Optimal Capital Growth Boundary
Scenario Grounding:
Wisconsin Primary Baseline (Hong 91%)
Contracts Purchased:
108.87 shares
Maximum Drawdown / Loss:
-$100.00 (-100%)
Net Profit If Correct:
+$8.87 (+8.87%)