Higher Seed (Home Game 1)
New York Liberty
Breanna Stewart • Sabrina Ionescu
ORTG 112.4 | DRTG 101.5 (+10.9)
VS
Challenger Seed
Connecticut Sun
Alyssa Thomas • DeWanna Bonner
ORTG 107.5 | DRTG 97.2 (+10.3)
Series Win Probability (Monte Carlo N=10,000)
10,000 Simulations
Series Outcome Distribution & Sweep Likelihood
Key Postseason Edge: Liberty holds a +3.2% Effective Field Goal margin from 3-point volume, while Sun dominates defensive turnover generation (+3.8%).
Expected Avg Score: 82.4 - 78.8
| Game | Site / Court | Score | Qtr Breakdown (Q1-Q4) | Series Leader | Game MVP / Key Driver |
|---|
Series Result: New York Liberty wins series 3-1
Analytics Model & Simulation Methodology
This simulator models the 2026 WNBA Playoff final four contenders using possessions-based scoring distributions, adjusted for opponent defensive efficiency, postseason pace dampening, and Dean Oliver’s Four Factors:
1. Possessions Model:
Expected Possessions = (PaceA × PaceB) / League Avg Pace (78.8) × Playoff Pace Factor.
Expected Possessions = (PaceA × PaceB) / League Avg Pace (78.8) × Playoff Pace Factor.
2. Efficiency Rating:
Expected ORTGA = ORTGA + (DRTGB - League Avg DRTG) ± Home Court Advantage.
Expected ORTGA = ORTGA + (DRTGB - League Avg DRTG) ± Home Court Advantage.
Scores are simulated per game using a normal distribution with empirical variance (σ ≈ 10.4 points per 100 possessions), factoring in tactical coaching strategies (such as 3PT blitzes and transition pace) and star clutch performance in 4th quarters.