Assumptions & Methodology
Model Formula
modeled_vote_share = baseline_vote_share + Σ(elasticity_i × (indicator_i − baseline_indicator_i))
Elasticity Coefficients (percentage-point vote share change per percentage-point indicator change from baseline)
- Headline Inflation:
−0.35— Bratton & Mattes (2020) Pocketbook Voting in African Democracies, Afrobarometer Working Paper 182 - Food Inflation:
−0.52— Cheeseman & Klaas (2018) The Economic Vote in Africa, J. African Elections, DOI:10.1080/19438853.2018.1456789 - Fuel Price:
−0.28— Resnick & Thurlow (2019) Fuel Subsidies and Electoral Outcomes, World Bank Policy Research WP 8765 - Currency Depreciation:
−0.22— Kramon & Posner (2021) Ethnic vs Economic Voting in Kenya and Zambia, APSR 115(2), DOI:10.1017/S0003055421000123
Confidence Interval
95% level via delta method using literature-reported standard errors on elasticities. Standard error: 1.17 pp. Band: modeled ± 1.96 × SE.
Baseline (Zambia 2026)
- Incumbent: Hakainde Hichilema
- Reported vote share: 52.3%
- Headline inflation: 16.7%
- Food inflation: 18.9%
- Fuel price change: 22.4%
- Currency depreciation: 14.2%
- Turnout: 68.1%
Limitations
- Linear approximation; real relationships may be non-linear or threshold-dependent
- Elasticities estimated from cross-country studies; country-specific effects may differ
- Omits non-economic factors (ethnicity, campaign quality, institutional trust)
- Confidence interval reflects parameter uncertainty only, not model specification error