2026 Proj. Real GDP Growth
3.1%
Gap to Promised 6.5%: -3.4%
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
88.4%
Post-haircut load
Net Annual Debt Service
$1.12B
Fiscal Stress: High
2021 Election Promise Target (6.5%)
Simulated Real GDP Trajectory
Debt Service Burden (% Revenue)
Macro-Fiscal Vulnerability Brief MODERATE STRESS
Under current assumptions ($8,800/t copper, 20% restructuring haircut), Zambia's GDP trajectory stabilizes at 3.1% in 2026. This leaves a severe 3.4 percentage-point deficit against the 2021 election platform commitment of 6.5% annual growth. Debt service absorbs 18.2% of government revenue, leaving restrained fiscal space for public investment.