a2 Milk Earnings Shock & Channel Waterfall Diagnostic

Simulated Revenue

NZD $1,675M

Base Target: $1,675M

Reported EBIT Margin

13.2%

-230 bps vs 15.5% Target

Operating EBIT

NZD $221.1M

-NZD $38.5M Miss

Net Profit After Tax (NPAT)

NZD $159.2M

Tax Rate: 28.0% effective

EBIT Variance Decomposition (NZD $M) Target 15.5% → Realized Outcome

China Formula Demand vs Farmgate Premium Sensitivity (EBIT NZD $M)

Channel Mix & Operating Cost Levers 100% Mix

China Label MBS (%) [48% GM]

Cross-Border EC (%) [41% GM]

Daigou Reseller (%) [34% GM]

ANZ Liquid Milk (%) [26% GM]

Formula Volume Contraction / Shock -4.0%

A2 Farmgate Raw Milk Premium Surcharge +12.0%

Marketing Reinvestment Intensity (% Rev) 18.5%

Supply Chain & Channel Inventory Provisions NZD $14.0M

Executive Risk Diagnostic