Diplomatic Network & Alliance Map
Drag nodes to inspect connectivity. Click candidate node to set Bayesian shock focus.
Selected: Syria (SYR)
Signatory Core
Key Candidate
Syria (8% Focus)
Regional Partner
Expansion Candidates Implied Probabilities
Live updated Bayesian posterior vs Polymarket historical baseline.
GEOPOLITICAL EVENT PRESETS:
Bayesian Updating Workbench
Adjust likelihood vectors P(Event | Accord) to compute updated posterior P(Accord | Events).
Market Prior P(A)
8.0%
Polymarket Baseline
Posterior P(A|E)
8.0%
+0.0%
Likelihood Ratio
1.00x
Neutral Impact
Implied Decimal Odds
12.50
YES Contract Price: $0.08
Security Pact & Defense Guarantees
0%
Bilateral or multi-lateral security assurances provided by regional mediators.
Economic Normalization Aid Package
0%
Direct sanctions relief, trade corridor inclusion, and investment incentives.
Mediator Diplomatic Momentum (Oman/Saudi)
0%
Active backchannel talks and high-level envoy diplomacy.
Kelly Criterion Sizing & Risk Management
Optimize prediction market contract sizing based on model subjective belief vs market odds.
Optimal Kelly %
0.0%
No Edge Identified
Recommended Stake
$0.00
0 Contracts
Expected Return (EV)
+0.0%
Neutral
Risk Profile
HOLD / PASS
Belief equals market odds
Model State: Validated Baseline