AI Bubble Probability & Market Implied Odds Terminal

Selected Target Event Q3 GPU Capex Cut

Simulated Probability 14.0%

Trade Execution Size $10,000

Estimated Slippage 0.82%

Expected Payout Yield +614.3%

Target Contracts SELECT MARKET

Event Milestone Trigger

Milestone Shift Event

Probability Shift Impact +15.0%

Time Decay Rate (γ) 0.02

Order Depth Simulator

Order Size (USDC) $10,000

Terminal Guide: Select a tech milestone, drag probability sliders or timeline nodes on the chart, and adjust order sizes to model market depth slippage and expected implied probability dynamics through year-end.

📈 Dynamic Implied Probability Trajectory D3 Interactive

Drag Milestone Markers on Curve

📊 Order Depth & Execution Slippage Engine

Liquidity Pool: $125,000

Implied Share Price 1 Share = $1.00 YES Payout

Max Expected Return +614.3% If contract resolves YES

Execution Price (Slippage) $0.1412 +0.82% market impact

Terminal Odds Drift 29.0% By Dec 2026 resolution