Polymarket Prediction Odds & Kelly Position Engine

Contract Inputs POL-2028-CRUZ

Scenario Preset

Contract Title

Market YES Price $0.74

Your Believed Probability 82.0%

Total Trading Bankroll ($)

Kelly Safety Fraction 0.50 (Half Kelly)

Execution Order Size ($)

ODDS CONVERSION MATRIX

Decimal Odds: 1.35x American Odds: -285

Implied Yes Prob
74.0%
Market consensus

Expected Value / Share

Per $1 payoff contract

Expected ROI

10.81%

Edge over market

Full Kelly Stake

$3,076.92

Optimal position

Fractional Kelly Stake
$1,538.46
Risking 15.38% of bankroll

Edge Detected (+8.00¢ / share)

Recommended fractional position: $1,538.46

Expected Value vs Entry Price Curve

Green = Positive EV Threshold

Order Book Liquidity & Execution Slippage

Simulated Order: $1,500

Monte Carlo 20-Trade Bankroll Trajectory Distribution

50 Simulated Trajectories

Market Edge Case Comparison Matrix Divergence Analysis

Scenario	YES Price	Belief	EV / Share	Kelly Stake	Status