How does the simulator model provincial access restrictions and educational counterfactual interventions?
This interactive simulator models the compounding impact of restrictive decrees on female secondary and higher education across ten Afghan provinces between 2021 and 2026. For each simulated year past 2021, the application scales down provincial baseline underground access by an eight percent annual restriction factor. Users can activate counterfactual interventions—satellite broadband, shortwave radio curricula, and offline mesh networks—which add fixed percentage increments back into provincial access estimates and adjust a ten-year literacy trajectory chart. The model is an educational scenario simulator rather than an empirical demographic forecast.
All projected shifts, underground access rates, and counterfactual bonuses (+8% for satellite, +6% for radio, +5% for mesh storage) are heuristic parameters defined in client-side code rather than surveyed field counts or calibrated econometric projections. Years 2025 and 2026 reflect hypothetical forward policy scenarios.
In the default 2024 state, select the province dropdown '#province-select' and change the value from 'Kabul' to 'Kandahar'. The province card updates its risk indicator from 'High Risk' to 'Severe Risk', connectivity falls from 42% to 21%, and estimated underground access drops from 27.7% to 9.8%. The map also centers over Kandahar's coordinates (31.63° N, 65.74° E). Kandahar's access is lower because its baseline estimate (5%) is reduced by 24% from policy restrictions (0.05 × 0.76 = 0.038) and receives only the 6% shortwave radio bonus, as satellite broadband is programmatically restricted in severe-risk provinces.
The client-side script computes adjusted provincial access using the formula: base × (1 - max(0, (currentYear - 2021) × 0.08)). At the 2024 default, the restriction multiplier is 1 - (3 × 0.08) = 0.76, scaling baseline clandestine access down by 24% before applying intervention bonuses.
In international educational monitoring, the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) tracks benchmark indicators such as SDG 4 completion rates to evaluate global progress on education access and equality. Data for the Sustainable Development Goals | Institute for Statistics (UIS)
When enabled in the sandbox, covert satellite broadband adds 0.08 to non-severe provinces, shortwave radio adds 0.06 to all provinces, and offline mesh hubs add 0.05. The combined result is clamped between 1% and 55% to represent theoretical operational limits.
UNESCO Institute for Statistics publishes international educational statistics and SDG 4 national benchmark reports on schooling completion and access.
In the saved demonstration, year twenty twenty four applies a factor one minus three times point zero eight, which is point seven six. The assumed Kabul underground access point one eight becomes point one three six eight. Satellite adds point zero eight and radio adds point zero six, yielding point two seven six eight before the clamp. Bars use twelve hundred pixels per access fraction. This is an assumed counterfactual calculation, not measured access or independently verified intervention effectiveness. The source political timelines and province estimates are not verified in this offline draft. The saved Kandahar entry is marked severe. The source permits satellite addition only when risk is not severe, so its default satellite toggle adds nothing there. Baseline point zero five times point seven six plus radio point zero six gives point zero nine eight. The Kabul scenario is point two seven six eight on the same twelve hundred pixels per fraction scale. Mesh would add point zero five independently. The final fraction is bounded from point zero one to point five five. These risk labels and numeric effects are demo assumptions, not validated humanitarian evidence. The chart always uses calendar twenty twenty four through twenty thirty four. Satellite and radio contribute chart bonuses five plus seven, totaling twelve. At the first point, base twenty eight plus twelve times point eight gives thirty seven point six. At the last point base ten plus ten times two point six plus nine point six gives forty five point six. Bars use eight pixels per chart percentage point. These chart bonuses differ from the province access additions and from the headline projection bonuses four point five and five point two. The selected timeline year does not replace the chart calendar. JSON exports the selected scenario; no causal policy forecast is validated.