Afghanistan Five-Year Impact Atlas (2021–2026)

An open technical workspace comparing regional indicators, conflict trajectories, and humanitarian baselines across thirty-four provinces with explicit uncertainty boundaries.

Examine Data Limitations
Technical topographical elevation overview representing the provincial geographic terrain
STAGE: PROVINCIAL TOPOLOGY REGISTER DATASET WINDOW: AUGUST 2021 — MARCH 2026
INTEREST / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Provincial Trajectory Matrix

Select two target provinces and an analytical indicator. Computations calculate delta shifts directly in-browser against original archival endpoints.

Awaiting Regional Selection

Choose two provinces and hit Compute Direct Delta to generate the complete mathematical comparison table.

01 Regional Selection 02 Endpoint Arithmetic 03 Uncertainty Flagging 04 Source Cross-Checking 05 Brief Synthesis 06 Client-Side Export
DESIRE / RIGOR & EVIDENCE

Precise arithmetic demands uncompromising methodological transparency.

Every comparative calculation adheres to strict provenance standards. We document the boundaries of conflict reporting, access suppression, and economic contraction.

Tracks female secondary school attendance thresholds from the August 2021 pre-ban baseline through current provincial policies.

ORIGIN: UNESCO & HR ARCHIVES

Provincial Trajectory Arithmetic

Read the explanation

The Afghanistan Comparative Atlas evaluates regional trajectories across thirty-four provinces from 2021 pre-transition baselines through 2026 endpoints. For any chosen indicator, the engine calculates the direct difference: endpoint value minus baseline value, expressed in percentage points or event counts. In the Poverty Rate Index, Kabul rises from forty-two percent to seventy-two percent, a plus thirty percentage point jump, while Herat rises from forty-eight to seventy-eight percent. Clicking Compute Direct Delta updates the comparison matrix dynamically in the browser, revealing shifts across education, security, and aid dependency.

Comparative Provincial Arithmetic and Indicator Scope

How does the atlas compute provincial indicator changes between 2021 and 2026, and how do its hardcoded model parameters relate to documented humanitarian baselines?

This atlas calculates provincial shifts using two-point arithmetic: subtracting the 2021 baseline value from the 2026 endpoint value for four selected indicators across eight provincial profiles. While the interface presents clean percentage point deltas and recorded incident reductions, all comparisons are drawn from a client-side array of eight hardcoded regional presets rather than dynamic surveys covering all 34 provinces. External institutional monitoring from UNESCO and the World Bank confirms the nationwide policy collapse in formal female secondary access and structural economic strain, but those sources document country-level realities rather than verifying every stylized numeric coefficient in this tool.

The comparison matrix contains presets for only 8 selected provinces (Kabul, Herat, Kandahar, Balkh, Nangarhar, Badakhshan, Helmand, and Ghazni), despite page text referring to thirty-four provinces. Conflict event counts and poverty figures in the script are static numerical benchmarks rather than live census observations or dynamic ACLED incident queries. Furthermore, calculating simple endpoint deltas does not establish causality between specific political decrees and localized indicator trends.

Try a worked example

With First Province left as Kabul and Second Province left as Herat, select 'Poverty Rate Index' under Analytical Domain and click 'Compute Direct Delta'. The tool evaluates Kabul's poverty baseline of 42% against its 2026 endpoint of 72%, calculating a direct difference of 72 − 42 = +30 percentage points. For Herat, it evaluates 48% against 78%, yielding +30 percentage points as well. The resulting table displays the identical +30 percentage point expansion alongside the baseline shift from 42% → 72% for Kabul and 48% → 78% for Herat.

Female Secondary Education Access Tracking

In the atlas model, every provincial profile assigns a 2026 female secondary education value of 0%, down from baselines ranging from 22% in Helmand to 78% in Kabul. This reflects nationwide administrative bans on girls attending secondary schools and universities.

UNESCO reports that since September 2021, the return to school for Afghan girls over age 12 was indefinitely postponed, leaving 1.1 million girls and young women without formal education access, followed by the December 2022 suspension of university access. Let girls and women in Afghanistan learn! | UNESCO

Economic Contraction and Poverty Baselines

The tool models poverty rate increases between +20 and +30 percentage points, showing endpoint poverty between 72% and 89% across urban and rural centers.

World Bank assessments document that the August 2021 transition led to frozen foreign exchange reserves, loss of international banking access, reduced external aid, and widespread public service disruptions, resulting in persistent household income stagnation and elevated poverty. Afghanistan | World Bank Group

Sources and further reading
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