African Rare Earths Public Financing & De-Risking Workbench

1. Sovereign Capital Stack (Total Capex: $480M)

Commercial Equity$120M (25%)

Commercial Bank Debt (Senior)$160M (33%)

US DFC / DFI Concessional Debt$140M (29%)

EXIM / Sovereign Grant & Guarantee$60M (13%)

Capital Structure Composition$480M / $480M

Comm Equity

Comm Debt

DFC Concessional

Sovereign Grant

2. Downstream Sovereign Backstops

DoD / Sovereign Offtake Price Floor$110 / kg NdPr

Spot Market NdPr Projected Price$95 / kg NdPr

Political Risk Insurance (MIGA / DFC)85% Coverage

3. Critical Mineral Processing & Corridor Diversification (D3 Flow)

Extraction to Western Magnet Supply Route Bypass Active: 74% Western Aligned

4. 10-Year Debt Service Waterfall & Cash Flow Forecast

Year	Revenue ($M)	Opex ($M)	EBITDA ($M)	Senior Debt Serv	DFI Concess Serv	Free Cashflow	DSCR

5. Investment Viability & Risk Metrics

Financially De-risked (Public Backstop Active)

Blended WACC

8.4%

Min DSCR (Floor Protected)

1.48x

Projected Project IRR

19.2%

Private Capital Crowded-in

$280M

Supply Chain Resilience Delta (vs Chokepoint)

+46.5%

6. Strategic Policy & Security Memo

Public concessional debt ($140M) and offtake guarantee ($110/kg floor) reduce private hurdle rate from 22.5% to sustainable 19.2% IRR. Debt service coverage remains stable at 1.48x even if global market prices plunge to $95/kg, securing independent heavy rare earth feedstocks for allied permanent magnet supply chains.