AGI Horizon Tracker & Benchmark Calibrator

Capability Calibration Deck

Level 3: Autonomous Agents

TARGET CAPABILITY TIER (OPENAI LEVELS 1-5)

ARC-AGI-2 General Reasoning 72%

SWE-bench Verified Autonomous Coding 54%

METR Long-Horizon Task Autonomy 4 hrs

Multimodal Scientific Reasoning (GPQA) 88%

Novel Scientific Discovery & Self-Correction 25%

Executive Target Year

Compute Scaling Multiplier

Discrepancy: +21 mo

Readiness Score

58.4%

Milestones Met

2 / 5

Convergence Year

2027.8

Primary Capability Bottleneck Scientific Discovery & Long-Horizon Novel Research

Target Tier Gate Threshold ARC 85% | SWE 75% | METR 16h

Forecast Discrepancy +21 Months (Target: 2026 vs Model: 2027.8)

Compute Acceleration Gain -8.4 Months (10x scaling)

Critical Pending Gates 3 Pending / 2 Satisfied