AI Bubble Burst Market Simulator | Prediction Market Bayesian Workbench

Bayesian Odds & Macro Signal Matrix

Live probability adjustment based on macro technology catalysts

Updated Prob

21.8%

Implied Odds

3.59 to 1

Delta vs Baseline

+7.8%

Market Volume

1,420,000

Macro Scenario Presets

Binary Option Position Evaluator

YES ($0.14) vs NO ($0.86) option contract payout & ROI analysis

Contract Entry Price ($)

YES Shares (Burst)

NO Shares (No Burst)

Total Capital

$14.00

Expected Value

$21.80

Expected ROI

55.7%

Break-Even Threshold

14.0%

Portfolio Resolution Payoff Matrix

Resolution Outcome	Payout ($)	Net Profit ($)	Return (%)
YES: AI Bubble Bursts	$100.00	+$86.00	+614.3%
NO: Continuation / No Burst	$0.00	-$14.00	-100.0%

Bayesian Evidence Log

AI Bubble Burst Market Simulator — Active Model State

Validated Prediction Engine & Option Position Summary

Updated Prob: 21.8%

Implied Odds: 3.59 to 1

EV: $21.80

ROI: 55.7%

Exported Portfolio Analytics JSON