AI Bubble Burst Probability Simulator & Prediction Market Analyzer

Macro Trigger Drivers

Load Counterfactual Scenario Presets:

Hyperscaler CAPEX YoY Growth +15.0%

Hyperscaler datacenter/GPU capital spending growth trajectory.

LLM Token Rev Decay Rate -8.0%

Annual price compression rate per 1M API inference tokens.

Datacenter Energy Cost Index 142

Power availability & cost index per MWh across primary grid hubs.

Prediction Market Depth ($) $1,500,000

Simulated Polymarket order book depth available to absorb trades.

Model Probability 13.0% Fundamental Model Implied

Market Variance 0.00% Spread vs Polymarket

Expected Timeline Q3 2026 Highest Risk Window

Brier Score Model 0.113 Forecast Calibration

Baseline Market Equilibrium: The Polymarket contract implies a 13.0% probability of an AI bubble burst by 2028. Current hyperscaler CAPEX expansion (+15.0% YoY) balances the persistent revenue compression (-8.0% token pricing decay).