5-Year Growth Trajectory Under Supply Stress (2026–2030)
Baseline Path
Stress Scenario
Diversified Hedge
Fab Clustering Drag -0.24%
Bottlenecks in advanced packaging and silicon fabrication hubs.
Capital Outflow Drag -0.19%
Profit repatriation to foreign proprietary model owners.
Productivity Gain +0.05%
Gross factor productivity boost from enterprise adoption.
The World Bank Warning: Productivity vs. Chokepoint Risk
While raising East Asia and Pacific (EAP) expansion to 4.5%, multilateral financial institutions emphasize that gains from artificial intelligence are disproportionately centralized. When cutting-edge compute clusters, packaging facilities, and proprietary foundation models reside in narrow geographic and corporate hands, downstream developing markets risk absorbing high infrastructure costs without retaining economic rent.
- Foundry Monopolies: Over 70% of leading-edge AI silicon packaging remains concentrated in single island supply chains.
- Terms of Trade Deterioration: Software licensing and foreign compute credits funnel capital out of domestic banking sectors.
Methodology & Transmission Channels
This workbench utilizes an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function with supply-concentration penalties (Herfindahl-Hirschman index sensitivity) and energy displacement constraints:
- Net Growth (ΔY): Calculated as ΔY = Base - (κ_fab × C_fab) - (κ_cloud × C_cloud) + (α_prod × R_retention).
- Infrastructure Friction: High grid stress penalizes secondary manufacturing by crowding out regional electricity allocations.
- Sensitivity Range: Fully client-side calculation allowing interactive counterfactual stress testing.