AI Debt Deluge & Consumer Rate Transmission Workbench

Debt Supply Shocks

Federal Deficit Issuance (Annual) $2.10T

Hyperscaler AI Bond Supply $180B

Base Yield & Policy

Baseline 10Y Benchmark 4.25%

Fed Funds Policy Rate 5.00%

Supply Sensitivity & Spreads

Term Premium Sensitivity 18 bps

Modeled 10Y Yield

4.68%

+43 bps supply shock

30Y Fixed Mortgage Rate
7.08%
+240 bps spread vs 10Y

5Y Auto Loan APR

8.48%

+380 bps spread vs 10Y

Credit Card APR

21.50%

+1650 bps vs Fed Funds

US Treasury Yield Curve & Crowding-Out Shift

Baseline Curve

Debt Deluge Curve

Household Debt Transmission Ledger (Monthly Drag on Median Principal)

Loan Category	Benchmark Principal	Effective APR	Baseline Payment	Shocked Payment	Monthly Drag (Delta)