Treasury Market Issuance & Yield Curve Engine

Sovereign Debt Composition & Supply-Absorption Yield Sensitivity Model

10Y Benchmark Yield

4.27%

-18.0 bps vs baseline

30Y Long Bond Yield

4.52%

-23.0 bps vs baseline

2Y / 10Y Curve Spread

32 bps

+2.0 bps steepening

Weighted Avg Maturity

68.4 mos

-3.6 mos duration cut

Annual Interest Cost Δ

-$14.8 B

Net Treasury refunding cost

Dealer Absorption Stress

42 / 100

Moderate primary absorption

Policy & Issuance Scenarios

Issuance Levers

T-Bill Share (% Total Debt) 24%

10Y Coupon Auction Sizing -10%

30Y Bond Auction Sizing -15%

Quarterly Buyback Volume $30 B / qtr

Perceived Intervention / Term Premium -18 bps

Annual Gross Issuance Need $3.20 T

US Sovereign Yield Curve (1M to 30Y Benchmark)

Baseline Curve

Simulated Curve

Treasury Maturity Issuance Allocation & Tenor Delta Tenor Shifts (bps) & Total Debt Share

Methodology: Calibrated supply-duration impact elasticity + Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) maturity distribution math.

Session Persistent (localStorage)