Existential Risk Telemetry

Anthropic AI Alignment Risk & Horizon Simulator

Evaluate 10-year catastrophic AI existential probability curves parameterized by capability velocity, verification rigor, and alignment R&D allocations.

Context (Watcher Guru / Anthropic): Lead alignment researcher warns of a >10% probability of catastrophic human extinction risk within the next decade without substantial safety intervention.

Simulation Parameters

Annual effective frontier model compute and algorithmic expansion multiplier.

Fraction of total R&D compute and personnel dedicated to alignment & interpretability.

Statistical confidence barrier before autonomous agent deployment or capability leaps.

Forward simulation duration (Anthropic projection focus: 10 years).

Decadal Risk Trajectory Real-Time Continuous Integration

Cumulative 10y X-Risk
12.4%
Trajectory Category
High Risk
Req. Safety Multiplier
2.8x
Net Safety Gap
-38.2%
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