Simulation Parameters
Annual effective frontier model compute and algorithmic expansion multiplier.
Fraction of total R&D compute and personnel dedicated to alignment & interpretability.
Statistical confidence barrier before autonomous agent deployment or capability leaps.
Forward simulation duration (Anthropic projection focus: 10 years).
Decadal Risk Trajectory Real-Time Continuous Integration
Cumulative 10y X-Risk
12.4%
Trajectory Category
High Risk
Req. Safety Multiplier
2.8x
Net Safety Gap
-38.2%