AI Moratorium & Arms Race Impact Simulator

"Democrat Rep. Greg Casar has emerged as a leading progressive voice advocating for a pause in the development of advanced AI and calling for the U.S. to end the global AI arms race."

Speaker: Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) Interviewer: Riley Rogerson Forum: POLITICO Decoded Summit (Washington, D.C.)

Geopolitical Presets

Policy Levers Casar Preset

Moratorium Duration 18 mos

Duration of legally enforced pause on frontier training runs

Verification Rigor 85%

Treaty inspection enforcement & datacenter compute monitoring

Safety R&D Share 60%

Mandated share of AI funding redirected to alignment & control tests

Compute Cap Threshold 10^26 FLOPs

Hardware FLOP threshold triggering mandatory safety audits

Safety Risk Reduction 42.5% De-escalation in catastrophic risk probability

Compute Growth Delta -34.0% Frontier cluster compute vs. unrestricted baseline

Global Stability Index 78 Arms-race de-escalation & treaty parity (/100)

Economic Adaptation 65 Industry re-tooling & narrow-AI deployment (/100)

60-Month Trajectory Projection

Catastrophic Risk Index Geopolitical Stability Cumulative Compute Index

Summit Policy Telemetry & Assessment Simulated Successfully

Active Model Preset Casar Progressive Moratorium

Verification Protocol 85% Rigor Multilateral

Cap Threshold 10^26 FLOPs

Rep. Greg Casar's proposal establishes an 18-month cooling period on models exceeding 10^26 FLOPs. Coupling this pause with high international inspection rigor (85%) lowers runaway existential risk by 42.5% while sustaining a global parity stability index of 78.

Frontier AI Moratorium & Verification Dynamics

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The simulator models how legally enforced pauses and compute verification alter frontier AI risk over a sixty-month horizon. Selecting Casar's progressive preset sets an eighteen-month moratorium on runs above ten to the twenty-sixth FLOPs, with eighty-five percent verification rigor. During the freeze, catastrophic risk plummets as compute stagnates, driving safety risk reduction down by forty-two point five percent. Simultaneously, high verification builds treaty parity, elevating the global stability index to seventy-eight before compute compounding resumes.