Probabilistic Risk Formalization

AI Risk Probability Decomposer

Claims of "0% chance" or "90% p(doom)" treat existential AI risk as a single monolithic gamble. Rigorous decision analysis decomposes the hazard into a causal conjunctive chain: frontier autonomy, goal misalignment, defense failure, real-world physical leverage, and multilateral containment breakdown.

Hypothesis Presets:
Compounded P(Doom)
4.82%
1 in 21 trajectories
Cumulative Survival P
95.18%
Interception by ≥1 safeguard
Single Biggest Bottleneck
Physical Leverage
Absorbs 82.0% of risk flow
Epistemic Uncertainty
[0.9% – 13.4%]
90% Beta Credible Interval
Probability Survival Funnel (Causal Pipeline)
Intervention Leverage (Tornado) Δ Risk from 50% Safeguard
Monte Carlo Distribution (10k Runs) 10,000 synthetic trials
0% Median: 4.6% 25%+
Key Causal Finding: The thesis that catastrophic risk is near-zero relies entirely on Physical & Cyber Leverage being gated by embodiment bottlenecks, or Societal Defense Dominance immediately neutralizing rogue agents.
Model parameters loaded and verified.

Analytical Framework: Why Single-Number Probabilities Mislead

1. The Conjunctive Rule

An existential catastrophe requires every single defensive layer to fail in sequence: P(Doom) = P(A) × P(B|A) × P(C|A,B) × P(D|A,B,C) × P(E|A,B,C,D). If any single barrier holds (such as robust air-gaps, hardware governance, or defensive AI superiority), overall risk collapses exponentially toward 0%.

2. Anatomy of the "0% Claim"

Computer scientists claiming a "0% chance" (e.g. Yann LeCun) do not necessarily deny AI capabilities. Instead, their model sets the conditional probability of uncontrollable self-directed drive or physical sovereignty to zero, positing that goal-driven architectures remain subordinate to hierarchical objective functions.

3. Where Interventions Matter

The sensitivity tornado identifies where research funding or governance produces the greatest variance. Improving post-deployment defense and monitoring often provides higher marginal leverage than arguing over whether AGI arrives in 2028 versus 2035.

Causal Chain Probability Decomposition

Read the explanation

Existential risk claims frequently reduce complex hazards to a single monolithic percentage. Decision analysis decomposes catastrophic outcomes into a strict sequential chain of five conditional barriers. Total risk equals the product of every conditional layer. Selecting the Skeptic preset demonstrates how setting physical leverage and societal failure to near zero collapses overall risk under one hundredth of a percent. Sensitivity tornado charts and ten thousand Monte Carlo iterations isolate the most critical intervention points. Hardening single bottleneck defenses provides far greater protective leverage than debating initial capability timelines.

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