Album Trajectory & Chart Unit Modeler

Simulate weekly Billboard 200 album equivalent units (SEA, TEA, Pure Sales), drop-off decay dynamics, and RIAA Gold/Platinum milestone pacing.

Presets:
Total Units (W18)
1,631,000
2.08B Streams Eq.
Weekly Units
60,000
Billboard #3
RIAA Certification
1× Platinum
369K to 2× Platinum
Pure Sales vs Stream
325K / 1.25M
20% Pure / 80% SEA
Cumulative & Weekly Billboard 200 Consumption
Milestones: ★ Gold (500k) • Wk 2 ★★ Platinum (1M) • Wk 6 ★★★ 2× Platinum (2M) • Est Wk 26 ★★★★ 3× Platinum (3M) • 52+ Wks

Weekly Billboard 200 Tracking Breakdown

Scrub chart or click row to inspect
Chart Wk Weekly Units Pure Sales SEA (Streams) TEA Est. Rank Cumulative Total
Model calculated: 1,631,000 units across 18 weeks (#3 on chart).

Billboard 200 Unit Calculations

Billboard 200 ranks albums by multi-metric consumption: 1 Pure Album Sale (Physical CD, Vinyl LP, or Paid Full-Album Download) = 1 Unit. 10 Track Sales (TEA) = 1 Unit. 1,250 Premium Paid Audio Streams or 3,750 Free/Ad-Supported Video/Audio Streams (SEA) = 1 Unit (roughly ~1,500 blended).

Decay Curves & Retention Physics

Blockbuster debuts experience steep Week 2 drops (often 50% to 75%) as dedicated superfan physical purchases clear. By weeks 4–6, pure sales taper off and long-term streaming catalog inertia governs the weekly hold, retaining 92% to 96% week-over-week for high-velocity hits.

RIAA Certification Benchmarks

In the United States, RIAA awards Gold at 500,000 certified units, Platinum at 1,000,000 units, and Multi-Platinum at each subsequent 1,000,000 increment. Streaming equivalents count toward RIAA certifications using standard on-demand stream conversion formulas.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does this model replicate the exact Olivia Rodrigo chart data tweet?

The preset loads a representative blockbuster pop trajectory: ~295k opening week, settling into consistent 55k–65k weekly streaming volume by week 18. At week 18, it yields exactly 60,000 weekly units, 1,631,000 cumulative units, a #3 rank, and a peak of #1 for 2 weeks—matching the exact captured Billboard 200 tracking report.

What is the difference between SEA and TEA?

SEA (Streaming Equivalent Albums) converts on-demand audio and video track streams of songs on the album into full album equivalents. TEA (Track Equivalent Albums) converts individual song sales (e.g., buying 10 individual songs from iTunes) into one album unit equivalent.

Can I export the full projection for label budgeting or fan tracking?

Yes. The "Export Forecast" button generates a validated JSON file containing every week's pure sales, SEA, TEA, cumulative totals, RIAA progress, and Billboard 200 tier projections ready to import into your spreadsheet or analytics workflow.

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