AMOC Rate-Tipping Sandbox: Ocean Circulation Collapse Simulator

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Cross-Section [Equator → Subpolar North] 19.2 Sv

Overturning Transport History ψ(t) [Sv] Min: 19.2 Sv

Phase Portrait (ΔT vs ΔS) & Separatrix T: 4.0° | S: 1.0

Scenarios & Presets

Warming Ramp & Forcing Dynamics

Warming Duration (Transition Time) 45 yrs

Equilibrium Temp Delta (ΔT_eq) 3.2 °C

Freshwater Forcing Flux (Fw) 0.15 Sv

Calculated Warming Rate 0.71 °C/decade

EQUILIBRIUM OVERTURNING 1.4 Sv

MINIMUM OVERTURNING 2.1 Sv

CRITICAL RATE THRESHOLD 0.048 Sv/dec

QUASI-STATIC TIPPING PASS No

R-Tipping Mechanism: When heating occurs too swiftly, thermal stratification shuts down polar convective sinking before salt-advection feedbacks can restore density. Even if the target temperature is bistably viable, fast ramps provoke irreversible collapse.