AMOC Rate-Tipping Sandbox: Ocean Conveyor Stability

Stommel 2-Box Thermohaline Dynamics & Rate-Induced Collapse (R-Tipping)
VIGOROUS CONVEYOR
Atlantic Conveyor Cross-Section Year: 0 / 250
Dynamic Scenarios (Presets)
2.8 °C/cen
0.15 Sv/cen
2.5 °C
1.0x
Key Insight: Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) occurs when rapid warming and freshwater melting dilute subpolar surface density faster than thermal advection can adapt—collapsing circulation even at greenhouse gas levels that would be stable if approached slowly!
Phase Portrait (Salinity Anomaly vs AMOC Transport) Attractor Separatrix
AMOC Transport
17.4 Sv
Density Gradient (Δρ)
1.82 kg/m³
Subpolar Salinity
35.20 PSU
North Atl. Temp (Tₙ)
4.2 °C
250-Year Overturning History (Transport Ψ) Bifurcation: Rate-Induced (R-Tipping)
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