Atlantic Basin Transect (Equator → Subpolar)
18.2 Sv Overturning
Phase Space (ΔSalinity vs ΔTemp)
Shifting Basins (R-tipping)
Overturning Strength
18.2 Sv
North Salinity Anomaly
-0.00 psu
Thermal Contrast (ΔT)
15.00 °C
Tipping Regime
ON (Stable)
+200y
Rate-Induced Tipping (R-tipping): AMOC collapse depends strongly on how fast heat and meltwater enter the North Atlantic (dT/dt). Even when final warming is moderate, rapid acceleration prevents the salt-advection feedback from restoring buoyancy loss, causing convection shutoff.
Scenario Presets
Forcing Parameters
0.10 °C/dec
Speed of surface heating anomaly applied to subpolar Atlantic.
0.02 Sv/dec
Greenland glacial runoff & Arctic sea ice freshening flux.
+1.8 °C
Cumulative global equilibrium thermal anomaly ceiling.
Equilibrium B-Threshold: ~2.8°C warming
Dynamic R-Threshold (at 0.60°/dec): ~1.6°C warming