Antitrust Coordination Index
Simulate release cadence synchronization, detect illegal innovation-throttling agreements, and compute cartel stability metrics across competing frontier AI labs.
Antitrust "Plus Factors" Detected
Legal & Regulatory Assessment
Economic Theory of Innovation Cartels
Under antitrust jurisprudence (e.g., American Tobacco Co. v. United States and DOJ/FTC Horizontal Merger Guidelines), horizontal agreements to slow down research and development, delay product iterations, or synchronize release timelines constitute illegal output restriction.
Even when framed as "responsible AI alignment pacts" or "voluntary safety commitments," an unmonitored horizontal understanding among market leaders that forecloses competitive release speed violates Section 1 of the Sherman Act if motivated by margin defense or mutual pace throttling.
How This Audit Indexes Coordination
Stigler Enforcement Criterion
Calculates the sustainability of tacit or explicit collusion based on detection speed, defection payoffs, and repeated-game discount factors (δ). When defection temptation drops below penalty costs, coordinated throttling persists.
Plus Factors under Sherman Act §1
Parallel conduct alone is not always sufficient proof; plaintiffs must demonstrate "plus factors" such as direct communications channels, unnatural synchronization of delays, actions contrary to unilateral self-interest, and joint restraint pacts.
Output Suppression Metrics
Estimates consumer welfare harm by contrasting compute-readiness dates against public deployment intervals, quantifying lost technological surplus and delay durations.