Argentina Monetary Commitment Simulator

1. Commitment Architecture

Statutory Regime

Initial Annual Inflation 142%

Initial FX Reserves ($bn) $24.5B

Primary Deficit (% GDP) 3.5%

2. Shock Injection Module

Shock Scenario

Shock Timing Month Month 6

Shock Magnitude 20%

Odysseus Rule: Central bank printing for Treasury deficits is criminalized. Liquidity shocks must be absorbed solely by fiscal surplus or reserve buffers.

Regime Integrity

Sustained with liquidity strain

Breaking risk: Low

Credibility Score

78/100

Disinflation anchor

Month 12 Inflation

18.4%

YoY trajectory

Peak GDP Contraction

-4.8%

Recession depth

Reserve Burn / Build

-$7.2B

24-month net FX

Credibility Anchor: 78% Social / Liquidity Strain: 64%

24-Month Trajectory Matrix Sampling: M1, M3, M6, M9, M12, M18, M24

Horizon	Inflation (YoY)	Real GDP Growth	Primary Bal (% GDP)	FX Reserves ($bn)	Strain Index