Milei's Odysseus Act: Argentina Monetary Commitment Stress Test

Preset Scenarios

Policy Parameters

Zero-Printing Strictness 95%

Primary Fiscal Surplus (% GDP) +2.5%

Initial Net Reserves ($B) $12.0B

Exogenous Shock Trigger

Shock Type

Shock Magnitude 35%

System Feedback Mechanics

Monthly CPI Inflation

2.1%

Down from 25.0% baseline

Net FX Foreign Reserves

$14.2B

+ $2.2B over 8 quarters

Country Risk (EMBI Index)

850 bps

Moderate sovereign spread

Real FX Appreciation

+18.4%

Competitiveness drag

Consumer Price Inflation Trajectory (%)

Central Bank Net Foreign Reserves ($B)

Sovereign Country Risk Spread (EMBI bps)

Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation Index

MACROECONOMIC RESILIENCE AUDIT REPORT Q8 Projection

Under the selected Base Stabilization Plan configuration, the monetary commitment rule effectively anchors inflation expectations. Net foreign reserves expand steadily while fiscal discipline prevents money printing monetization. However, competitiveness risks build up via real exchange rate appreciation.