| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Astros (HOU) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | X | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Live Diamond & Game State Scrubber
Bot 8th • 2 Out
Game Timeline Scrubber
Play 8 of 10: 2-Run Breakthrough
Win Expectancy
91.2%
Leverage Index (LI)
2.84
RE24 (Base-Out)
0.481
Win Probability & Leverage Timeline
Innings 1 → 9
Notice the flat 50–52% win probability baseline through the 7th before the steep 8th-inning spike to 91.2%.
Sabermetric Context:
A 0-0 deadlock entering the bottom of the 8th elevates Leverage Index past 2.8 (nearly 3× regular game swing value). The 2-run home rally represents a +39.2% WPA surge, virtually sealing the shutout win.
24-State Run Expectancy (RE24) Matrix
8th-Inning Rally Tester
Click any state to preview how baserunner alignment shifted expected runs and leverage during Houston's decisive 8th:
| Base State | 0 Outs | 1 Out | 2 Outs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empty | 0.481 | 0.254 | 0.098 |
| 1st | 0.859 | 0.509 | 0.224 |
| 1st & 3rd | 1.784 | 1.140 | 0.486 |
| Loaded | 2.282 | 1.520 | 0.737 |
Active: Bases Empty, 0 Outs → Expected Inning Runs: 0.481.
9th-Inning Bullpen Closeout Simulator
Save Odds: 92.4%
Houston took a 2-0 lead into the 9th. Test common opponent 9th-inning situations to see live save probability and shutout preservation:
Save Probability
92.4%
Shutout Preserved
Yes (92.4%)
Closer LI
1.95
Baseline 9th with a 2-0 lead gives Houston a 92.4% historical save win conversion, successfully preserving the shutout.