MLB Sabermetric Analysis

Astros 8th-Inning Shutout Win Probability & Leverage Explorer

Post-8th WP: 91.2%
Delta: +39.2%
Shutout: Active
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Opponent 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
Astros (HOU) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 X 2 6 0
8th Inning Breakthrough: With a 0-0 deadlock persisting through 7 full innings, Houston broke through in the bottom of the 8th with 2 runs, elevating Win Probability from 52.0% to 91.2% (+39.2% WPA).
Live Diamond & Game State Scrubber
Bot 8th • 2 Out
Game Timeline Scrubber Play 8 of 10: 2-Run Breakthrough
Houston Batter: Bregman Outs: ● ● ○
Win Expectancy
91.2%
Leverage Index (LI)
2.84
RE24 (Base-Out)
0.481
Win Probability & Leverage Timeline
Innings 1 → 9
Notice the flat 50–52% win probability baseline through the 7th before the steep 8th-inning spike to 91.2%.
Sabermetric Context:
A 0-0 deadlock entering the bottom of the 8th elevates Leverage Index past 2.8 (nearly 3× regular game swing value). The 2-run home rally represents a +39.2% WPA surge, virtually sealing the shutout win.
24-State Run Expectancy (RE24) Matrix
8th-Inning Rally Tester

Click any state to preview how baserunner alignment shifted expected runs and leverage during Houston's decisive 8th:

Base State 0 Outs 1 Out 2 Outs
Empty 0.481 0.254 0.098
1st 0.859 0.509 0.224
1st & 3rd 1.784 1.140 0.486
Loaded 2.282 1.520 0.737
Active: Bases Empty, 0 Outs → Expected Inning Runs: 0.481.
9th-Inning Bullpen Closeout Simulator
Save Odds: 92.4%

Houston took a 2-0 lead into the 9th. Test common opponent 9th-inning situations to see live save probability and shutout preservation:

Save Probability
92.4%
Shutout Preserved
Yes (92.4%)
Closer LI
1.95
Baseline 9th with a 2-0 lead gives Houston a 92.4% historical save win conversion, successfully preserving the shutout.
Sabermetric Ledger & Event Record
Validated against MLB official post: Astros 2-0 Shutout Breakthrough

Saved baseball probability and expectancy fixtures

Read the explanation

Saved baseline fifty-two percent and post-rally ninety-one point two differ by thirty-nine point two percentage points. Bars share zero at six pixels per percentage point. This is not a thirty-nine point two percent relative increase. Game, player and probability entries are source fixtures, not verified play-by-play or calibrated odds. Saved runners first-and-third one-out anchor is one point one four expected runs; empty bases zero outs is point four eight one. Difference is point six five nine. Bars share zero at one hundred fifty pixels per expected run. These are programmed expectancy fixtures, not guarantee of a run in an individual inning. Saved rally outcome adds two runs while one earlier anchor expectancy is one point one four. Bars label actual source outcome and expected value at two hundred pixels per run. Expectation summarizes a hypothetical distribution, while two is the saved play result; subtraction alone does not validate an expectancy model. Raw native export/reset and original responsive allocation checked; real match outcome remains unverified.

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