Batch Parameters
Log-Gamma Precision
Statistical Anomaly Status
Extreme Statistical Improbability
p < 10⁻¹⁰⁰ (Astronomical Anomaly)
Expected Votes
3,000
12.5% of 24k
Observed Ratio
0.00%
0 of 24,000
Log10 Probability
-1391.2
Exact Log-Gamma
Exact P-Value
1.0e-1391
Hypergeometric
Theoretical Hypergeometric Distribution Density
Expected Mean: 3000 | SD: 51.2
Auditor Verdict:
Observing exactly 0 candidate votes in a random sample of 24,000 ballots from a precinct with 12.5% baseline support has a probability of less than 1 in 10¹⁰⁰. This exceeds standard audit alert thresholds by orders of magnitude.
Monte Carlo Precinct Batch Sampling Simulator
Simulate thousands of independent random vote batch draws under baseline precinct conditions
Simulated Candidate Vote Totals (Histogram)
2,000 Draws Completed
Simulation Outcomes
Total Iterations:
2,000
Min Observed Votes:
2,812
Max Observed Votes:
3,198
Simulated Zero-Vote Count:
0 (0.00%)
Empirical Variance:
2,584.2
Out of 2,000 simulated draws under the baseline parameters, 0 batches yielded a tally as extreme as the observed vote count.
Physical Audit Hand-Count Matrix
Required physical ballot sample sizes for hand-verification at varying confidence intervals
| Tolerable Defect Limit (%) | 90% Confidence | 95% Confidence | 99% Confidence | 99.9% Confidence |
|---|
* Calculated using Hypergeometric Risk-Limiting Audit (RLA) sample size equations without replacement.
Audit Handoff & Export
Generate standard compliance audit reports detailing input parameters, computed p-values, log probabilities, and recommended hand-count sample sizes.
Methodology & Standard Compliance
• Log-Gamma Lanczos Hypergeometric Exact Calculator
• Risk-Limiting Audit (RLA) Sequential Sampling Model
Status: Ready for Audit Export