Game 4 Live Status • Dodgers Lead 2-1
Best-of-5 Division Series
Dodgers
2 Wins (Needs 1 to Clinch)
78.4%
VS
Padres
1 Win (Needs 2 to Clinch)
21.6%
Series Leverage (sLI) 2.14
Clinch Probability 56.8%
Game Win Swing ± 32.4%
Expected Games 4.43

Series Game Sequence & Home Field Schedule

Click any game node to toggle winner (Team A / Team B / Unplayed).
Series In Progress

* The binomial tree calculates exact combinatorial conditional probabilities using Log5 head-to-head adjustments, venue home field modifiers, and live pitching deltas.

How Postseason Win Expectancy Works

Unlike regular season games where single outcomes regress to 162-game averages, postseason series win expectancy operates on finite absorption Markov chains. Each win irreversibly eliminates possible branch sequences, exponentially concentrating leverage onto later games.

Understanding Series Leverage Index (sLI)

Formulated analogous to Tom Tango's in-game LI, Series Leverage Index (sLI) measures the absolute swing in total series championship probability hanging on the outcome of a single contest relative to an average series game (where sLI = 1.0). An elimination Game 5 or 7 carries an sLI above 3.0.

Log5 Head-to-Head & Venue Effects

Bill James' Log5 formula dictates the probability P(A) of Team A defeating Team B given their underlying true talent winning percentages. The model dynamically factors MLB's postseason home field advantage (~53.6% historical home win rate) and starting pitching matchups.

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