Surrogate Alignments
Strategy Mix
Hasan Piker (Streamer)
50%
Drives youth turnout activation in Wayne/Kent (+4.2%), but incurs suburban/rustbelt backlash (-3.8%).
John Fetterman (Rustbelt)
50%
Boosts working-class swing margin in Macomb/Wayne (+3.5%), slight youth turnout drop (-0.5%).
Macro Turnout & Sensitivity
Base Youth Turnout Factor
1.0x
Scales responsiveness of under-30 demographic turnout.
Suburban Elasticity
1.0x
Magnifies swing voter backlash/retention in Oakland & Macomb.
Battleground County Shift Matrix
4 Key Tipping-Point Counties
Demographic Coalition Shift (Net Vote Impact)
Key Metrics
Total Simulated Turnout
4,400,000
Youth Turnout Activation Net
+0 Votes
Suburban Swing Net Shift
+0 Votes