The $600,000 / 2029 Hypothesis Examined

Veteran trader Peter Brandt proposed that Bitcoin could reach $600,000 by 2029, asserting that monetary policy tightening or rate hikes would have negligible dampening effect over multi-year horizons due to structural inelastic supply.

This simulator allows quantitative market participants to stress-test this thesis against competing models: the Santostasi Logarithmic Power Law ($300k–$400k range by 2029), diminishing returns cycle decay (0.35x attenuation each epoch), and persistent high real rates suppressing sovereign liquidity multipliers.

Methodology & Mathematical Foundation

Power-Law Baseline: ln(P) = a + b * ln(days since genesis). Historical cycle tops have oscillated around a decreasing multiplier of this baseline.

Halving Epoch Supply Shock: Incorporates block reward step-downs (50 → 25 → 12.5 → 6.25 → 3.125 in 2024 → 1.5625 BTC in 2028), weighting structural daily newly mined supply against marginal fiat liquidity inflows.

Macro Sensitivity: Discounts target multiples using rate drag penalties representing high risk-free hurdles and tightening credit spreads.