Black Sea Grain Corridor & Food Security Risk Modeler

Illustrative Logistics · Authored Cost Assumptions · Historical Context, Not Operational Guidance

Corridor Security Regimes TRUCE PROPOSED
Hull & War-Risk Surcharge 1.25% of Vessel Value
Target Export Capacity 4.2 MMT / month
Daily Vessel Departures 7 Bulkers / day
Port Terminal Operations Click to toggle status
Odesa Hub
Deepwater (100%)
Chornomorsk
Grain Silos (100%)
Pivdennyi
Max Draft (100%)
Danube Hubs
Izmail/Reni (Barge)
Effective Flow 3.85 MMT
Modeled Total Freight $42.80 / MT
Authored Speed 12.4 kts
Modeled Pipeline Count 28 Bulkers
Gap to Assumed Grain Baseline -0.8% (Mild)
Danube River Flow SCHEMATIC THREAT CIRCLE — NOT AN INTELLIGENCE MAP Bosphorus Strait (Istanbul Chokepoint) Historical inspection context (2022–2023) Odesa Authored 40% capacity weight Chornomorsk Pivdennyi (Yuzhny) Danube Ports Izmail & Reni
Western Black Sea Corridors
High-Seas Truce Lane (Direct Deepwater)
Schematic coastal route — not verified navigation
Authored threat-circle illustration
Illustrative Recipient Allocation & Gap Matrix Unsourced country fixtures
Recipient Country Authored Reliance Monthly Inflow Modeled Tonnage Gap Authored Days Score Status
Actual calculation: Allocates the modeled grain flow against a fixed 4.5 MMT assumption. Country demands, reliance and reserve days are unsourced fixtures. No calorie conversion, nutritional needs, measured silo stocks or substitute-origin supply is calculated.
Shipping Cost Composition (per Metric Ton) $42.80 / MT
Cost Stacking Distribution Insurance Risk: 34%
Bunker ($15.00)
Charter ($12.00)
War-Risk Surcharge ($10.80)
Port/Canal ($5.00)

Authored Price-Pressure Proxy

Illustrative Gap × 0.18 (Not FAO) +1.4% (Neutral)
Authored Freight × 0.42 Proxy +$18.50 / MT
Authored Discount Proxy -$24.00 / MT
Strategic Security Regime Comparison Static authored ranges — not current forecasts

1. Historical-inspired Truce Scenario

Throughput: 4.2 - 5.5 MMT/mo
War-Risk Rate: 0.8% - 1.5%
Freight Cost: $38 - $46 / MT
Vulnerability: Low Caloric Shock

2. Unilateral Coastal Corridor

Throughput: 2.8 - 3.6 MMT/mo
War-Risk Rate: 2.0% - 3.0%
Freight Cost: $52 - $68 / MT
Vulnerability: Moderate Deficit

3. Active Threat / Naval Strikes

Throughput: 1.2 - 1.8 MMT/mo
War-Risk Rate: 4.0% - 5.5%
Freight Cost: $85 - $110 / MT
Vulnerability: High Emergency

4. Total Maritime Blockade

Throughput: 0.4 - 0.8 MMT (Danube only)
War-Risk Rate: Uninsurable / >7%
Freight Cost: >$140 / MT
Vulnerability: Large Assumed Grain Gap

Trace the assumptions before interpreting a grain-flow gap

Does a modeled shipping shortfall tell you a country’s calorie deficit or a safe route?

No. This tool connects authored port, vessel and cost assumptions to a grain-tonnage gap. It does not load nutrition, stock, market or navigation evidence. Use it to inspect which input limits a hypothetical flow, then consult the original institutional sources for historical context and maritime safety information.

The map is schematic, threat circles are drawn rules and all preset ranges are unsourced. The UN-facilitated Black Sea Grain Initiative operated in 2022–2023; its historical inspection arrangement must not be read as a currently active truce. No displayed route, speed or risk label establishes safe passage.

Try a worked example

Reset the baseline: port factor = 1, target = 4.2 MMT and vessel capacity = 7 × 0.55 = 3.85 MMT, so modeled flow is min(4.2, max(0.35, 3.85)) = 3.85 MMT. Gap to 4.5 is 14.4%, not a global calorie deficit. Freight is 15 + 12 + 5 + 1.25 × 8.64 = $42.80/MT. The insurance amount is an authored conversion, not a quote derived from a specific vessel or policy.

Important shortcuts in the arithmetic

Port weights are 40%, 30%, 20% and 10%. Restricted multipliers differ by port. The max(0.35, vessel flow × port factor) term leaves a residual floor even at zero daily vessels, provided the target × port factor permits it. That residual is an inherited assumption, not a modeled Danube shipment. Closing every port yields zero flow.

Country allocation is flow × authored country demand / 4.5. Consequently all rows have the same rounded relative gap; displayed reliance and population do not change it. Days = baseline days × (1 − 0.65 × rounded gap), with a minimum of 12. Price pressure = gap × 0.18; it is not the FAO index. Static comparison cards do not recalculate with the sliders.

Keep the agreement and safety context dated

The UN FAQ dates the Black Sea Grain Initiative’s launch to 22 July 2022 and expiry to 17 July 2023. It describes a historical arrangement; it does not validate the hypothetical truce preset or these rates. United Nations: Black Sea Grain Initiative FAQ

IMO maintains separate material on maritime safety and security in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, including the historical initiative and subsequent developments. Follow current authoritative shipping advice and voyage procedures rather than this simplified drawing. IMO: maritime safety and security in the Black Sea

Sources and further reading
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