Black Sea Grain Shipping Risk & Corridor Simulator

LIVE SITUATION MODEL
Active Primary Route Coastal Bypass Corridor
Avg Transit Delay

Trace assumptions before interpreting shipping losses

Do hazard percentages predict a ship’s incident probability? Here they are authored 0–100 inputs. Route lines, hazard circles and port statuses illustrate a scenario rather than live maritime intelligence. Compare the formulas, then keep navigation decisions and insurance terms separate.

Worked cost and capacity example

The reset inputs are drone 45, mine 30 and port 50. Their weighted index is (0.35×45 + 0.25×30 + 0.40×50)/100 = 0.4325. For a handysize coastal scenario, capacity is 4.5×(1−0.6×0.4325)×0.85 = 2.8324125, displayed as 2.83 million tonnes/month. With insurance $18/tonne and fixed delay 3.4 days, total freight is $22 + $18 + 30×0.4325 + 2.5×3.4 = $61.475, displayed as $61.48.

What changes each output

Route multipliers are 1.00 direct, 0.85 coastal and 0.55 Danube; fixed delays are 1.2, 3.4 and 6.8 days. Vessel multipliers are 1.20 Panamax, 1.00 handysize and 0.45 barge. Capacity cannot fall below 0.8 in this model. The $/tonne insurance input is added directly to costs, not converted from a hull-value premium.

The farmgate discount is 0.85×insurance + 18×hazard index + 1.8×delay; it is an assumed relationship, not observed market pass-through. Hub rows are independently calculated and need not add to headline capacity. Signed capacity reduction can be negative: the open Panamax scenario is above the fixed 4.5 baseline. A selected port label does not confirm that the real port is operational.

Primary maritime sources and scope

IMO’s Black Sea and Sea of Azov advice links maritime-security guidance, including floating-mine concerns. The historical Joint War Committee circular of 25 April 2023 says application to individual contracts is specifically negotiated. Neither source validates these slider weights, coordinates, costs, current coverage or throughput figures. The map background is context, not a navigational chart.

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