Distinguish lost capacity from unmet shipments
Why can an elevated damage label coexist with a zero deficit?
Severity follows fixed damage thresholds. The deficit separately subtracts an assumed reroute buffer. This distinction helps explore a scenario, but neither the buffer nor the route diagram proves that a real shipment can be moved.
There is no live incident, berth, vessel, rail, border, storage or futures feed. Terminal count is a shortcut that selects a damage percentage, not a capacity-weighted engineering assessment. The 45/30/25 regional split and dollar-per-bushel coefficient are authored fixtures.
Try a worked example
Baseline capacity is 35,000 tonnes/day and the authored damage fraction is 33.3%. Disruption is round(35,000 × 0.333) = 11,655; remaining primary output is 23,345. A 12,000 buffer leaves max(0, 11,655 − 12,000) = 0 unmet tonnes/day. Reducing buffer to 2,000 leaves 9,655. The price fixture stays +$0.38 because it uses gross disruption, not the net deficit.
Alternative routes require their own evidence
The European Commission describes Solidarity Lanes supporting Ukrainian exports and imports through rail, road and inland waterways. This establishes that alternative logistics exist in that context, not that a Russian Novorossiysk shipment can use them or that the slider’s buffer is available. Each route requires its own origin, capacity, access and timing evidence. European Commission: EU–Ukraine Solidarity Lanes
What the regional table means
Rows allocate gross disrupted tonnage using fixed shares, rather than dividing the residual deficit among destinations. Their labels depend on whether any deficit remains and whether a share is at least 40%. Rounded rows can differ slightly from the total. They are not destination-specific shortage or food-security forecasts.
A price fixture is not price discovery
The display multiplies disrupted tonnes / 35,000 by 1.14115, then rounds to cents. There is no estimated demand elasticity, inventory, contract maturity or fitted relationship. FAO’s World Food Situation provides actual market monitoring, including its monthly food-price index and cereal supply-and-demand brief; those are different measures from this dollar-per-bushel fixture. FAO: World Food Situation
Compare scenarios and save assumptions
Change capacity, damage and buffer separately, then export JSON. Risk labels follow damage bands below 5%, up to 25%, 55%, 80% and above 80%; increasing buffer does not change the label or price fixture. The diagram is a static schematic. Reset restores the authored baseline; output descriptions do not authorize routing, embargoes or contractual declarations.
Sources and further reading