The highlight is real; this trajectory is an experiment
What does a ball-flight model leave out of a postseason moment?
This page connects a real baseball highlight to a synthetic two-dimensional flight experiment. The default velocity, angle, distances and equity/run values are authored fixtures, not verified Statcast readings or observed WPA/RE24. Changing the controls explores this model, not a reconstruction of Guerrero’s actual hit.
The preserved engine uses gravity plus a fixed drag factor, no lift, spin or wind, 0.02-second steps and a 10-second cap. Its three fence distances and 10-foot heights are toy targets, not current Rogers Centre measurements. A home-run flag includes a distance override beyond wall +15 feet even if sampled wall height is low. No fielders, outs, inning, score or runners are simulated.
Try a worked example
At 114.2 mph and 28°, the model produces 482 feet, 78 feet apex and 4.38 seconds, independent of the spray button. The center target is 385 feet, so the landing-distance margin is 97 feet. Switching to a 328-foot target changes the margin to 154 feet, without changing flight. The history table’s 428-foot entry remains a stored, unverified distance. Set 85 mph and 10°: the center-target result is 161 feet, with a −224-foot margin, selecting the negative equity/run fixture pair.
Follow the real events in official records
MLB dates Guerrero’s postseason grand slam to October 5, 2025. MLB: Guerrero highlight
The linked MLB records identify Carter’s 1993 Game 6 walk-off, Bautista’s 2015 ALDS Game 5 homer and Encarnación’s 2016 Wild Card walk-off. MLB: Carter highlight MLB: Bautista highlight MLB: Encarnación highlight
These links establish event context, not the comparison table’s distances or this experiment’s initial conditions. Keep a measured hit’s data source, game/play identifier and stadium configuration attached to any real comparison. A visually plausible arc is not measurement evidence.
Impact depends on game state
WPA measures an event’s change in win probability. MLB: WPA
MLB’s Game Strategy Explorer uses inning, score, outs and runners for win probability, and outs, count and runners for run expectancy. Its historical comparison also explains postseason extra-inning handling. Those inputs and reference tables are absent here. MLB Savant: Game Strategy Explorer
This interface selects only two authored pairs: +0.384 and +1.712 for a model home run, or −0.142 and −0.950 otherwise. Its bar widths are fixed illustrations, not probabilities or calculated RE24. No grand slam is established here as a universal maximum of win-equity change.
Read and export the model consistently
The margin is landing distance minus target-fence distance, not vertical clearance. The canvas scales to retain the flight within view, and the wall is drawn at 2.5× visual height for visibility. Spray changes the wall target, not the path’s underlying horizontal direction.
Reset restores 114.2 mph, 28° and the center target. Replay compresses the synthetic flight into 1.5 seconds. JSON saves the selected model inputs and results; its equity/run entries follow the current outcome. The static historical comparison does not change with sliders, and the export is not a Statcast record.
Sources and further reading