68.4%
Braves Series Win Prob
54.2%
Game 2 Adjusted Win Prob
-2.1%
Bullpen Fatigue Impact
Braves in 4 games (31.8%)
Dominant Series Outcome
Series Win Probability Tree (Game-by-Game Branching)
Current State: 1-0 Braves
Empirical Model: Winning Game 1 in MLB Best-of-5 elevates home-team series advancement from 50.0% to 68.4%. Path nodes dynamically update with rotation matchups and bullpen fatigue.
Bullpen Readiness & Leverage Index Tracking
| Role / Pitcher | Game 1 Usage | Fatigue Index | Game 2 Availability | Estimated Back-to-Back Penalty |
|---|
Exact Series Outcome Distribution