Brazil Presidential Election Model
Two-Round Engine
50%+1 Valid-Vote Runoff Trigger • 27 Electoral Districts • Second-Round Transfer Flows
Presets:
Polarized Runoff
First-Round Sweep
Third-Way Surge
High Abstention
Reset
Round 1 Constitutional Status
Runoff Required
Runoff (No 50%+1)
Cand A:
46.1%
Cand B:
41.2%
Cand C:
8.1%
Cand D:
4.6%
Round 2 Runoff Projected Winner
Candidate B Wins
51.10%
Cand A:
48.90%
(57.9M)
Cand B:
51.10%
(60.5M)
Tipping Point & Total Electorate
Decisive State:
Minas Gerais (MG)
Total Valid Votes:
118,420,000
| Blank/Null:
4.2%
Simulation Active: 27 states mapped with regional turnout modifiers.
Brazil Electoral Cartogram (27 States/DF)
Round 1 Map
Round 2 Map
Cand A Majority
Cand B Majority
Close / Battleground (±2%)
State Electorate & Battleground Ranking
Sorted by Electorate Size
State
Region
Electorate
R1 Leader
R2 Margin
Status
Polling & Runoff Transfer Controls
Interactive Workbench
Round 1 Candidate National Baseline
Total Valid Votes (100%)
Cand A
44.2%
Cand B
39.5%
Cand C (Ciro/Centrão)
7.8%
Cand D (Reform)
4.5%
Round 2 Voter Transfer Matrix
Where 3rd/4th party voters migrate
Candidate C Voter Reallocation:
To Cand A
35%
To Cand B
45%
Abstain / Spoil
20%
Candidate D Voter Reallocation:
To Cand A
25%
To Cand B
60%
Abstain / Spoil
15%
Eliminated Vote Reallocation Visualizer
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