Brazil Presidential Election Poll Tracker & Runoff Simulator

Polling Averages Over Time (First Round)

2026 Tracking Model

Two-Round Threshold (50%+1)

Adjust second-choice voter transfers from eliminated candidates (Candidate C & D) to simulate Round 2 runoff trajectories between Top 2 contenders.

Candidate C Transfers to Candidate A 60%

Candidate D Transfers to Candidate A 40%

Undecided / Turnout Shift to Candidate A 50%

RUNOFF CALCULATED

Candidate A (Center-Right) 51.2%

51.2%

Candidate B (Left Alliance) 48.8%

48.8%

Candidate A Wins (+2.4%)

Based on current coalition alignment & transfers