Brazil Election Poll Tracker & Runoff Simulator

2026 Model
Scenarios:
First-Round Valid Votes (50%+1 Threshold) Real-time D3 tracker
RUNOFF REQUIRED (ROUND 2)
Target: 50.0% + 1 vote
Calculating election model scenarios...
Regional Polling Distribution & Multipliers 5 Electoral Regions

Regional voter concentration adjusts candidate leads. Adjust turnout and regional weight parameters to model shifts.

Second-Round Head-to-Head Simulation Candidate A vs Candidate B

Includes redistributed undecided voters and second-choice transfers from third-party candidates.

Saved vote-share redistribution arithmetic

Read the explanation

Saved candidate inputs forty-four point five and thirty-nine point two plus point six of sixteen point three others form denominator ninety-three point four eight. Bars compare candidate shares at ten pixels per share point. The sixty-percent valid-third-party assumption is source-authored, not actual polling evidence or legal guidance. Default forty-percent transfer to each candidate multiplies sixteen point three to six point five two for each. Bars share zero at fifty pixels per transferred share point. Adding gives fifty-one point zero two and forty-five point seven two; remaining twenty percent is omitted from runoff denominator. Runoff totals fifty-one point zero two plus forty-five point seven two give ninety-six point seven four. Dividing each by that total normalizes two modeled shares to one hundred percent. Bars share zero at ten pixels per pre-normalization share point. Model assumptions are not actual election forecasts. Full native raw scenario JSON and genuine reset/resize preserved.

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